1 00:00:00,260 --> 00:00:10,720 [Music] 2 00:00:16,450 --> 00:00:13,160 so thanks for introduction this is 3 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:16,460 probably the longest title of the 4 00:00:20,750 --> 00:00:18,450 mouthful so I explain a characterization 5 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:20,760 with James Webb ticularly focused about 6 00:00:24,890 --> 00:00:23,610 the Chaplin system and I'm gonna give us 7 00:00:26,270 --> 00:00:24,900 a little bit about introduction to that 8 00:00:27,530 --> 00:00:26,280 which is great because I'm gonna zip 9 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:27,540 through the introduction really fast 10 00:00:31,580 --> 00:00:28,890 because I have a lot of stuff to show 11 00:00:33,830 --> 00:00:31,590 so the key big picture here is that M 12 00:00:35,180 --> 00:00:33,840 dwarfs are about three-quarters of the 13 00:00:36,740 --> 00:00:35,190 stars in our local group so if you're 14 00:00:39,260 --> 00:00:36,750 thinking about the distribution of life 15 00:00:40,430 --> 00:00:39,270 and astrobiologist both in the solar 16 00:00:42,050 --> 00:00:40,440 system and beyond 17 00:00:44,180 --> 00:00:42,060 you kind of want an idea about where 18 00:00:46,790 --> 00:00:44,190 life might exist in the local universe 19 00:00:49,160 --> 00:00:46,800 and chances are good that you're gonna 20 00:00:52,370 --> 00:00:49,170 be looking at an EM door around four 21 00:00:54,639 --> 00:00:52,380 planets around other stars so the other 22 00:00:57,770 --> 00:00:54,649 good piece of information here is that 23 00:01:01,340 --> 00:00:57,780 the Kepler statistics show us that M 24 00:01:02,690 --> 00:01:01,350 dwarf stars are more likely to are very 25 00:01:05,299 --> 00:01:02,700 likely to have planets around all of 26 00:01:06,469 --> 00:01:05,309 them and the stars that do have planets 27 00:01:08,749 --> 00:01:06,479 are likely to have multiple planets 28 00:01:11,210 --> 00:01:08,759 that's really great and because these M 29 00:01:13,340 --> 00:01:11,220 dwarf stars are small and red and cooler 30 00:01:14,630 --> 00:01:13,350 they're a lot easier to observe planets 31 00:01:15,710 --> 00:01:14,640 around them because that transit method 32 00:01:17,060 --> 00:01:15,720 right you're looking for earth-size 33 00:01:18,950 --> 00:01:17,070 planet and if you're around a smaller 34 00:01:21,170 --> 00:01:18,960 dimmer star so much easier to see that 35 00:01:23,060 --> 00:01:21,180 signal so that's really the only way 36 00:01:25,340 --> 00:01:23,070 that will observe terrestrial AXA 37 00:01:29,149 --> 00:01:25,350 planets around other stars in the next 38 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:29,159 20 years is with James Webb but M dwarf 39 00:01:33,050 --> 00:01:31,530 stars have their own problems that other 40 00:01:35,359 --> 00:01:33,060 stars may not have and that's a very 41 00:01:37,310 --> 00:01:35,369 long super luminous premium sequence 42 00:01:39,740 --> 00:01:37,320 phase so for up to a billion years while 43 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:39,750 the star and planets are forming the 44 00:01:43,250 --> 00:01:41,250 star is much brighter than it will 45 00:01:45,260 --> 00:01:43,260 eventually be and so planets that are in 46 00:01:47,359 --> 00:01:45,270 the habitable zone for the main-sequence 47 00:01:49,969 --> 00:01:47,369 phase during the pre main-sequence phase 48 00:01:51,710 --> 00:01:49,979 they can boil off you know tens or 49 00:01:53,749 --> 00:01:51,720 hundreds of oceans and build up to 50 00:01:56,090 --> 00:01:53,759 thousands of bars of or atmospheres of 51 00:01:57,859 --> 00:01:56,100 oxygen and this is a serious issue for 52 00:02:00,980 --> 00:01:57,869 these planets actually having life 53 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:00,990 eventually in addition to this pre 54 00:02:05,450 --> 00:02:02,970 main-sequence phase the last so long you 55 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:05,460 have life long stellar activity that can 56 00:02:08,869 --> 00:02:06,930 continue to sterilize the surface and 57 00:02:12,530 --> 00:02:08,879 strip off the atmosphere so that's 58 00:02:14,900 --> 00:02:12,540 that's maybe a bad sign so if you're so 59 00:02:17,150 --> 00:02:14,910 with that information then you ask how 60 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:17,160 could M dwarf planets even have life how 61 00:02:19,850 --> 00:02:18,810 could they even have an atmosphere so we 62 00:02:21,470 --> 00:02:19,860 need to start asking some of these 63 00:02:22,820 --> 00:02:21,480 questions to be able to see if these are 64 00:02:25,339 --> 00:02:22,830 even great things to look at for 65 00:02:27,740 --> 00:02:25,349 astrobiology so our first question might 66 00:02:29,150 --> 00:02:27,750 be do these planets even have an 67 00:02:30,830 --> 00:02:29,160 atmosphere that's kind of the first bit 68 00:02:33,410 --> 00:02:30,840 of information you want when you observe 69 00:02:34,790 --> 00:02:33,420 them next might be are these massive 70 00:02:36,380 --> 00:02:34,800 oxygen atmospheres I'm talking about 71 00:02:38,030 --> 00:02:36,390 which are just theorized at this point 72 00:02:39,770 --> 00:02:38,040 right we don't have an oxygen a mass of 73 00:02:41,420 --> 00:02:39,780 oxygen planet in our solar system we 74 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:41,430 just have a life based oxygen around 75 00:02:47,330 --> 00:02:44,330 Earth that's also a problem for a false 76 00:02:48,949 --> 00:02:47,340 false bio signature right so are those 77 00:02:52,100 --> 00:02:48,959 types of planets even possible or a 78 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:52,110 common even or do you get a more venous 79 00:02:55,309 --> 00:02:53,610 like planet looking at our solar system 80 00:02:56,990 --> 00:02:55,319 we know a Venus like planet can exist 81 00:02:59,479 --> 00:02:57,000 and this is a post runaway greenhouse 82 00:03:02,780 --> 00:02:59,489 planet are these perhaps the most common 83 00:03:04,670 --> 00:03:02,790 types of planets around or star or and 84 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:04,680 perhaps the only way you can really get 85 00:03:09,740 --> 00:03:07,530 a habitable planet in the habitable zone 86 00:03:11,660 --> 00:03:09,750 of an M dwarf star is can you have some 87 00:03:13,550 --> 00:03:11,670 kind of mini Neptune a more hydrogen 88 00:03:15,410 --> 00:03:13,560 rich volatile rich planet can this 89 00:03:17,059 --> 00:03:15,420 migrate in during formation strip off 90 00:03:18,740 --> 00:03:17,069 its hydrogen envelope and leave you with 91 00:03:20,089 --> 00:03:18,750 a habitable evaporated core which is 92 00:03:22,309 --> 00:03:20,099 positive if you used to go by Richard 93 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:22,319 Lugar at all so spectral observations by 94 00:03:27,229 --> 00:03:25,050 James Webb will help us distinguish or 95 00:03:28,790 --> 00:03:27,239 show whether these types of planets can 96 00:03:29,589 --> 00:03:28,800 occur and distinguish among them 97 00:03:31,399 --> 00:03:29,599 hopefully 98 00:03:32,630 --> 00:03:31,409 so we've already heard a little bit 99 00:03:34,100 --> 00:03:32,640 about Trappist one this is a great 100 00:03:36,170 --> 00:03:34,110 system I'll just hit it briefly again 101 00:03:37,790 --> 00:03:36,180 three planets inside the inner edge of 102 00:03:39,530 --> 00:03:37,800 the habitable zone three planets within 103 00:03:41,330 --> 00:03:39,540 the conservative habitable zone at least 104 00:03:43,850 --> 00:03:41,340 one planet beyond the outer edge so this 105 00:03:46,550 --> 00:03:43,860 gives you a great single system to look 106 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:46,560 at planetary evolution among seven 107 00:03:51,020 --> 00:03:48,650 different targets which is really great 108 00:03:52,399 --> 00:03:51,030 so just the first of my talk I'm going 109 00:03:54,380 --> 00:03:52,409 to talk about the climate model and the 110 00:03:55,850 --> 00:03:54,390 chemistry model I use show some of the 111 00:03:57,740 --> 00:03:55,860 modeling results in terms of the 112 00:03:59,690 --> 00:03:57,750 atmospheres and their structures and 113 00:04:01,070 --> 00:03:59,700 their chemistry and then go into some of 114 00:04:04,460 --> 00:04:01,080 the spectral signatures which is really 115 00:04:06,170 --> 00:04:04,470 the point of the work I'm doing so the 116 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:06,180 model I use is a 1d climate model this 117 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:08,450 is a very rigorous line-by-line 118 00:04:11,809 --> 00:04:10,530 radiative convective model and whose 119 00:04:14,780 --> 00:04:11,819 multi scattering off so it's a great 120 00:04:16,789 --> 00:04:14,790 stuff that you use to you can model 121 00:04:19,159 --> 00:04:16,799 earth and all the solar system plans 122 00:04:21,170 --> 00:04:19,169 with these this is coupled to a photo 123 00:04:23,269 --> 00:04:21,180 chemical kinetics model because as I 124 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:23,279 said M dwarfs have really crazy UV and 125 00:04:26,359 --> 00:04:25,050 so in order to really understand what 126 00:04:27,799 --> 00:04:26,369 might happen to an atmosphere around 127 00:04:29,340 --> 00:04:27,809 them core if you have to understand what 128 00:04:32,130 --> 00:04:29,350 the UV is doing to the chemical 129 00:04:35,310 --> 00:04:32,140 species in the atmosphere once I've 130 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:35,320 converged on a photochemical and climate 131 00:04:39,270 --> 00:04:37,930 equilibrium state then this uses the 132 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:39,280 exact same radio transfer models 133 00:04:43,620 --> 00:04:41,050 prettiest very high-resolution spectra 134 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:43,630 that can then be get degraded and so you 135 00:04:48,030 --> 00:04:45,130 can see what they might look like for 136 00:04:49,710 --> 00:04:48,040 James Webb so when we're considering 137 00:04:53,010 --> 00:04:49,720 what kind of atmosphere is I'm modeling 138 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:53,020 I'm mostly modeling thick evolved 139 00:04:56,490 --> 00:04:54,610 atmospheres right atmospheres that have 140 00:04:59,220 --> 00:04:56,500 evolved from the primordial composition 141 00:05:01,410 --> 00:04:59,230 this spans from a recent ocean loss type 142 00:05:03,510 --> 00:05:01,420 system where we said okay it just lost 143 00:05:05,280 --> 00:05:03,520 its water from the pre main sequence 144 00:05:08,820 --> 00:05:05,290 phase and perhaps you're just left with 145 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:08,830 mostly oxygen and then perhaps if that 146 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:11,050 planet was not totally desiccated from 147 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:12,370 its interior that it might have 148 00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:14,410 outgassing like earth right greenness 149 00:05:19,620 --> 00:05:17,800 like IO then you have other constituents 150 00:05:20,940 --> 00:05:19,630 that are volcanic that can be emitted so 151 00:05:22,290 --> 00:05:20,950 you can look at that and then all the 152 00:05:24,570 --> 00:05:22,300 way to the Venus like end of the 153 00:05:25,860 --> 00:05:24,580 spectrum where you just have a runaway 154 00:05:27,590 --> 00:05:25,870 greenhouse planet and this is what are 155 00:05:29,850 --> 00:05:27,600 you left with but since this is a 156 00:05:32,820 --> 00:05:29,860 astrobiology conference let's also 157 00:05:34,260 --> 00:05:32,830 consider what an earth-like planet might 158 00:05:36,300 --> 00:05:34,270 look like right all the other previous 159 00:05:38,430 --> 00:05:36,310 ones I showed are not really anything 160 00:05:40,530 --> 00:05:38,440 that we would expect life that we know 161 00:05:42,270 --> 00:05:40,540 it took to live on but I'm comparing 162 00:05:44,280 --> 00:05:42,280 this with an ocean bearing planet that 163 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:44,290 perhaps could develop life so we can see 164 00:05:49,710 --> 00:05:48,010 if we can distinguish these now when I 165 00:05:51,570 --> 00:05:49,720 model these atmospheres and come up with 166 00:05:53,910 --> 00:05:51,580 the surface temperatures the story 167 00:05:55,710 --> 00:05:53,920 becomes more complicated the habitable 168 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:55,720 zone is only a first-order indicator of 169 00:05:58,800 --> 00:05:57,490 habitability but if you stick different 170 00:06:01,800 --> 00:05:58,810 types of atmospheres on the same planet 171 00:06:03,810 --> 00:06:01,810 you end up finding that the habitable 172 00:06:07,110 --> 00:06:03,820 zone is not a guarantee of habitability 173 00:06:08,550 --> 00:06:07,120 you can have planets span from 600 PS 174 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:08,560 600 Kelvin if you have a Venus like 175 00:06:13,860 --> 00:06:11,650 atmosphere all the way down to very low 176 00:06:16,260 --> 00:06:13,870 cold 180 Kelvin for just an oxygen 177 00:06:18,060 --> 00:06:16,270 atmosphere on a colder planet so this is 178 00:06:19,710 --> 00:06:18,070 kind of a problem but the habitable zone 179 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:19,720 is still a place that is more likely 180 00:06:23,670 --> 00:06:21,970 alright knock with planet gives us some 181 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:23,680 more cases so we have more good 182 00:06:27,060 --> 00:06:24,610 green-colored 183 00:06:28,590 --> 00:06:27,070 maybe habitable temperatures in the 184 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:28,600 habitable zone than we have outside of 185 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:30,690 it so it's still a good indicator 186 00:06:34,860 --> 00:06:33,250 now with the modeling results here's 187 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:34,870 pressure and temperature structures and 188 00:06:37,980 --> 00:06:36,130 chemistry I'm just going to breeze 189 00:06:40,009 --> 00:06:37,990 through these really fast but just a 190 00:06:41,269 --> 00:06:40,019 couple important points 191 00:06:42,859 --> 00:06:41,279 the previous speaker talked about phase 192 00:06:44,749 --> 00:06:42,869 curves and that can tell you something 193 00:06:46,579 --> 00:06:44,759 about the temperature structure of the 194 00:06:48,619 --> 00:06:46,589 planet that's one way you can observe an 195 00:06:51,769 --> 00:06:48,629 oxygen planet is because there's no 196 00:06:53,479 --> 00:06:51,779 water the oxygen absorption actually 197 00:06:55,249 --> 00:06:53,489 creates a temperature inversion near the 198 00:06:57,139 --> 00:06:55,259 surface and this may be observable by a 199 00:06:58,969 --> 00:06:57,149 thermal phase curve but I'm not going to 200 00:07:00,289 --> 00:06:58,979 show any of those in this talk this 201 00:07:02,119 --> 00:07:00,299 these planets are otherwise 202 00:07:03,679 --> 00:07:02,129 distinguished by high ozone levels 203 00:07:05,179 --> 00:07:03,689 because there's no water to scrub out 204 00:07:07,189 --> 00:07:05,189 the ozone which happens in Earth's 205 00:07:08,449 --> 00:07:07,199 troposphere and the same thing you get 206 00:07:08,989 --> 00:07:08,459 carbon monoxide build up in the 207 00:07:11,719 --> 00:07:08,999 atmosphere 208 00:07:13,519 --> 00:07:11,729 you might be observable now if you have 209 00:07:14,959 --> 00:07:13,529 a little more outgassing with an oxygen 210 00:07:16,790 --> 00:07:14,969 planet you end up losing this 211 00:07:20,329 --> 00:07:16,800 temperature inversion at the surface you 212 00:07:22,609 --> 00:07:20,339 create a more typical terrestrial a tbat 213 00:07:26,119 --> 00:07:22,619 of a temperature but this is a lot 214 00:07:27,889 --> 00:07:26,129 warmer you get some some water in the 215 00:07:29,299 --> 00:07:27,899 atmosphere and this ends up going 216 00:07:33,049 --> 00:07:29,309 basically into it runaway greenhouse 217 00:07:34,790 --> 00:07:33,059 state as you can see where you have even 218 00:07:36,469 --> 00:07:34,800 more than you know point one percent 219 00:07:38,769 --> 00:07:36,479 water in the in the upper atmosphere 220 00:07:41,350 --> 00:07:38,779 indicating that the planets losing water 221 00:07:44,149 --> 00:07:41,360 but you get a lot less carbon monoxide 222 00:07:45,259 --> 00:07:44,159 and you get a little bit less buildup of 223 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:45,269 ozone but this is still fairly 224 00:07:50,479 --> 00:07:48,050 substantial so that's pretty interesting 225 00:07:53,079 --> 00:07:50,489 then if we go to Venus like planet and 226 00:07:55,879 --> 00:07:53,089 as far as I know this is the first real 227 00:07:59,299 --> 00:07:55,889 EXO Venus modelling I've ever seen so 228 00:08:00,739 --> 00:07:59,309 yeah but you end up seeing that even a 229 00:08:02,479 --> 00:08:00,749 Venus around m-dwarf still looks kind of 230 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:02,489 Venus like these white lines are the 231 00:08:05,869 --> 00:08:04,050 Venus ones in each color is the each 232 00:08:08,149 --> 00:08:05,879 planet you'll notice there's no Trappist 233 00:08:10,189 --> 00:08:08,159 1b here because the planet is too hot to 234 00:08:11,989 --> 00:08:10,199 actually form sulfuric acid clouds so 235 00:08:14,419 --> 00:08:11,999 that really is not going to be quite as 236 00:08:16,369 --> 00:08:14,429 Venus like and that's maybe good news or 237 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:16,379 bad news for a couple of reasons but you 238 00:08:18,949 --> 00:08:17,610 see these planets can still form 239 00:08:20,059 --> 00:08:18,959 sulfuric acid clouds and here's the 240 00:08:22,909 --> 00:08:20,069 optical depth that I form in this 241 00:08:24,499 --> 00:08:22,919 photochemical model and so you still 242 00:08:26,059 --> 00:08:24,509 make it clouds which is if you've 243 00:08:28,129 --> 00:08:26,069 followed any of the exoplanet work with 244 00:08:29,779 --> 00:08:28,139 hubble space telescope that's might be a 245 00:08:32,389 --> 00:08:29,789 serious problem for anthing spectroscopy 246 00:08:34,670 --> 00:08:32,399 that I've burned through some of the 247 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:34,680 climates let's look maybe more at what 248 00:08:39,129 --> 00:08:36,689 we act might actually observe so here's 249 00:08:42,079 --> 00:08:39,139 a very confusing spectra of 250 00:08:43,879 --> 00:08:42,089 Trappist one see the second planet with 251 00:08:45,980 --> 00:08:43,889 all of its cases I modeled so you have 252 00:08:47,569 --> 00:08:45,990 the oxygen cases down here and green and 253 00:08:49,610 --> 00:08:47,579 purple and then Venus light cases up 254 00:08:52,309 --> 00:08:49,620 here and yellow and red 255 00:08:53,689 --> 00:08:52,319 and what you see here is that first of 256 00:08:55,879 --> 00:08:53,699 all where is your signal coming from 257 00:08:58,489 --> 00:08:55,889 since like so the previous speakers have 258 00:09:01,850 --> 00:08:58,499 said your transit spectrum is light from 259 00:09:03,220 --> 00:09:01,860 within from the star not from the planet 260 00:09:05,239 --> 00:09:03,230 so it's passing through the atmosphere 261 00:09:06,199 --> 00:09:05,249 so that's where your stronger signal is 262 00:09:07,429 --> 00:09:06,209 so keep that in mind when you're looking 263 00:09:09,619 --> 00:09:07,439 at how big some of these features are 264 00:09:10,999 --> 00:09:09,629 and where the signal is but you get co2 265 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:11,009 features right that goes back to our 266 00:09:14,449 --> 00:09:12,569 first question is how do we know these 267 00:09:15,860 --> 00:09:14,459 planets even have an atmosphere the most 268 00:09:17,569 --> 00:09:15,870 universal sign for a terrestrial planet 269 00:09:19,549 --> 00:09:17,579 is probably going to be carbon dioxide 270 00:09:21,199 --> 00:09:19,559 every planet I modeled had some carbon 271 00:09:22,819 --> 00:09:21,209 dioxide and carbon dioxide produces very 272 00:09:24,650 --> 00:09:22,829 strong signals and multiple wavelength 273 00:09:26,449 --> 00:09:24,660 bands so that's probably the first place 274 00:09:29,059 --> 00:09:26,459 to look for whether a planet has an 275 00:09:31,009 --> 00:09:29,069 atmosphere the next thing we might be 276 00:09:33,829 --> 00:09:31,019 interested in is a water signal for a 277 00:09:35,059 --> 00:09:33,839 planet like this in the inside in inside 278 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:35,069 of inner edge of the habitable zone 279 00:09:39,259 --> 00:09:37,290 water is not necessarily a good sign 280 00:09:40,670 --> 00:09:39,269 these have very strong water features 281 00:09:42,619 --> 00:09:40,680 and this is actually sign that there's 282 00:09:43,879 --> 00:09:42,629 water in the stratosphere and so your 283 00:09:46,329 --> 00:09:43,889 planet is actually losing water so 284 00:09:48,860 --> 00:09:46,339 that's maybe not a good thing to see I 285 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:48,870 mentioned the oxygen planets so you can 286 00:09:53,210 --> 00:09:50,370 actually distinguish these from their 287 00:09:54,530 --> 00:09:53,220 heavy oxygen so you get oxygen collision 288 00:09:55,850 --> 00:09:54,540 because the atmospheres are so dense and 289 00:09:57,019 --> 00:09:55,860 have sufficient oxygen for that so 290 00:09:58,420 --> 00:09:57,029 that's a signal we can actually look for 291 00:10:00,920 --> 00:09:58,430 as well 292 00:10:04,369 --> 00:10:00,930 ozone again is another thing that maybe 293 00:10:07,340 --> 00:10:04,379 might be an issue or false bio 294 00:10:08,749 --> 00:10:07,350 signatures and then you have other gases 295 00:10:10,939 --> 00:10:08,759 like sulfur dioxide which indicate 296 00:10:12,980 --> 00:10:10,949 volcanism and that is maybe a good or 297 00:10:15,230 --> 00:10:12,990 bad thing for what the planet is active 298 00:10:18,499 --> 00:10:15,240 geologically active or is this thing 299 00:10:19,970 --> 00:10:18,509 more venus like CEO also indicates 300 00:10:21,769 --> 00:10:19,980 desiccation so that's not good 301 00:10:23,509 --> 00:10:21,779 but so Trapattoni this is probably I 302 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:23,519 think the literature is mostly an 303 00:10:27,579 --> 00:10:24,930 agreement that Trapattoni is probably 304 00:10:30,470 --> 00:10:27,589 the best target for trafficed one for 305 00:10:32,629 --> 00:10:30,480 potentially habitable planet and so I've 306 00:10:33,829 --> 00:10:32,639 plotted the Aqua planet as well and 307 00:10:36,230 --> 00:10:33,839 that's these two spectra down here and 308 00:10:37,309 --> 00:10:36,240 since their one bar their transmission 309 00:10:39,290 --> 00:10:37,319 Spectre get deeper into the atmosphere 310 00:10:41,689 --> 00:10:39,300 in fact deep enough to start seeing 311 00:10:43,579 --> 00:10:41,699 water features from the troposphere and 312 00:10:44,990 --> 00:10:43,589 in this case you can see that the water 313 00:10:46,610 --> 00:10:45,000 features are actually kind of similar if 314 00:10:48,410 --> 00:10:46,620 you look at the relative transit depth 315 00:10:49,780 --> 00:10:48,420 from the top of the Cygnus to the bottom 316 00:10:51,980 --> 00:10:49,790 of the signal they're roughly the same 317 00:10:53,449 --> 00:10:51,990 and that's because these even the 318 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:53,459 runaway greenhouse planets have a little 319 00:10:56,749 --> 00:10:55,410 bit less water in their atmosphere so 320 00:10:58,460 --> 00:10:56,759 it's really hard to distinguish whether 321 00:11:00,819 --> 00:10:58,470 this planet has an ocean just from 322 00:11:03,079 --> 00:11:00,829 seeing a water feature in the atmosphere 323 00:11:05,299 --> 00:11:03,089 those own features a little bit smaller 324 00:11:06,649 --> 00:11:05,309 for an earth-like planet so that might 325 00:11:08,749 --> 00:11:06,659 be good but that really might be hard to 326 00:11:10,159 --> 00:11:08,759 distinguish but the other thing you get 327 00:11:12,499 --> 00:11:10,169 for an earth-like planet right is 328 00:11:13,429 --> 00:11:12,509 methane that's simply something Leavitt 329 00:11:15,229 --> 00:11:13,439 biologists study and though there's a 330 00:11:17,479 --> 00:11:15,239 methane talk later in the session 331 00:11:18,919 --> 00:11:17,489 and this is only a biotic levels of 332 00:11:21,169 --> 00:11:18,929 methane and it's still showing up as a 333 00:11:22,519 --> 00:11:21,179 signal in my spectra one thing if you're 334 00:11:24,199 --> 00:11:22,529 familiar with some of the other M dwarf 335 00:11:25,969 --> 00:11:24,209 Tresckow exoplanet literature is M 336 00:11:29,359 --> 00:11:25,979 dwarfs and dwarf planets have a lot 337 00:11:31,699 --> 00:11:29,369 higher capability of seeing more methane 338 00:11:32,809 --> 00:11:31,709 much more methane than earth gifts so 339 00:11:34,579 --> 00:11:32,819 this is actually earth bubbles of 340 00:11:36,529 --> 00:11:34,589 methane from only geological levels 341 00:11:38,179 --> 00:11:36,539 reflexes so you can imagine that these 342 00:11:42,019 --> 00:11:38,189 methane bands could be much stronger 343 00:11:44,359 --> 00:11:42,029 from an actual biosphere so those were 344 00:11:45,379 --> 00:11:44,369 beautiful perfect christine spectra even 345 00:11:47,959 --> 00:11:45,389 though they're really scary-looking 346 00:11:49,249 --> 00:11:47,969 there was no air bars on them so what 347 00:11:51,049 --> 00:11:49,259 happens when a telescope is actually 348 00:11:52,759 --> 00:11:51,059 trying to observe this planet this is 349 00:11:55,009 --> 00:11:52,769 gonna be a lot more difficult case and 350 00:11:56,989 --> 00:11:55,019 this is this one right here is trapezoid 351 00:11:58,549 --> 00:11:56,999 B the innermost planet probably the 352 00:12:01,099 --> 00:11:58,559 easiest to observe because the hottest 353 00:12:03,229 --> 00:12:01,109 it's fairly large compared to the other 354 00:12:06,889 --> 00:12:03,239 ones so this one produces very strong 355 00:12:10,099 --> 00:12:06,899 signals up to 200 parts per million from 356 00:12:12,499 --> 00:12:10,109 an instrument that has a noise floor of 357 00:12:13,879 --> 00:12:12,509 probably 30 parts per million so this 358 00:12:15,319 --> 00:12:13,889 you can actually see you can see the co2 359 00:12:17,239 --> 00:12:15,329 features you're looking at the dots you 360 00:12:19,249 --> 00:12:17,249 can see actually a water feature co2 361 00:12:21,469 --> 00:12:19,259 feature water so this is actually great 362 00:12:24,049 --> 00:12:21,479 and this is only ten occultation sort n 363 00:12:25,849 --> 00:12:24,059 transits to observe in this planet so 364 00:12:28,189 --> 00:12:25,859 that's actually doable with James Webb 365 00:12:30,289 --> 00:12:28,199 hopefully is that we have capability 366 00:12:31,869 --> 00:12:30,299 here perhaps observing this planet and 367 00:12:34,729 --> 00:12:31,879 actually seeing spectral features 368 00:12:35,749 --> 00:12:34,739 now I mentioned clouds before our clouds 369 00:12:37,219 --> 00:12:35,759 are a serious problem 370 00:12:39,949 --> 00:12:37,229 so let's look a Trappist one see which 371 00:12:41,479 --> 00:12:39,959 could form sulfuric acid clouds the 372 00:12:43,309 --> 00:12:41,489 cloud deck is right here right it 373 00:12:45,619 --> 00:12:43,319 truncates the transmission spectrum at 374 00:12:47,359 --> 00:12:45,629 the top of the cloud deck and so this is 375 00:12:49,849 --> 00:12:47,369 a serious problem because now our signal 376 00:12:52,459 --> 00:12:49,859 went from maybe 200 parts per million to 377 00:12:53,539 --> 00:12:52,469 now it's half that and so that's a lot 378 00:12:55,159 --> 00:12:53,549 more difficult and here's the number of 379 00:12:57,949 --> 00:12:55,169 occupations you'd have to get to several 380 00:12:59,989 --> 00:12:57,959 noise of five or ten fifteen for Travis 381 00:13:01,129 --> 00:12:59,999 Muncey for a Venus like atmosphere or if 382 00:13:03,829 --> 00:13:01,139 you have a Venus like atmosphere that 383 00:13:06,619 --> 00:13:03,839 actually has clouds now you're up to 384 00:13:08,209 --> 00:13:06,629 eighty and I don't think the James Webb 385 00:13:10,459 --> 00:13:08,219 committees have determined how much time 386 00:13:11,750 --> 00:13:10,469 is going we're ever going to approve 387 00:13:14,870 --> 00:13:11,760 eighty transit system 388 00:13:16,610 --> 00:13:14,880 like 100 200 hours of time on a very 389 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:16,620 expensive telescope that has to compete 390 00:13:23,150 --> 00:13:20,730 with other science so now that was 391 00:13:27,230 --> 00:13:23,160 already really bad the habitable planet 392 00:13:28,580 --> 00:13:27,240 potentially trap us 1e this this looks 393 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:28,590 pretty scary right you can see a co2 394 00:13:32,660 --> 00:13:30,450 band but this is fifty or a hundred 395 00:13:34,220 --> 00:13:32,670 transits of this planet to be able to 396 00:13:35,630 --> 00:13:34,230 see these features so this maybe is 397 00:13:37,010 --> 00:13:35,640 something that once we really understand 398 00:13:39,230 --> 00:13:37,020 the noise characteristics of James Webb 399 00:13:41,780 --> 00:13:39,240 and if it's favorable maybe this is 400 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:41,790 something we can convince the observers 401 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:44,490 in charge of the telescope to look at 402 00:13:48,350 --> 00:13:46,050 something like trap is running long 403 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:48,360 enough to actually be able to 404 00:13:51,050 --> 00:13:49,890 distinguish an atmosphere in this plant 405 00:13:52,610 --> 00:13:51,060 otherwise if you just look at five 406 00:13:54,380 --> 00:13:52,620 transits and traffice or any you're not 407 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:54,390 going to see anything and not gonna 408 00:13:58,310 --> 00:13:57,810 learn anything so what data do we have 409 00:13:59,900 --> 00:13:58,320 now 410 00:14:01,700 --> 00:13:59,910 Korea's speaker Arthur mentioned 411 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:01,710 photometry so we did look at the 412 00:14:07,190 --> 00:14:04,290 photometric bands from Spitzer and 413 00:14:09,290 --> 00:14:07,200 Kepler that are available and we find 414 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:09,300 that our models kind of fit the data 415 00:14:14,180 --> 00:14:12,090 here but the Spitzer bands Spitzer 416 00:14:16,310 --> 00:14:14,190 really struggles with seeing at rest 417 00:14:19,070 --> 00:14:16,320 reply that they tried this really 418 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:19,080 doesn't rule out anything straight-line 419 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:21,810 my spectra hey but at least they're kind 420 00:14:25,390 --> 00:14:23,010 of going the right way 421 00:14:28,130 --> 00:14:25,400 but that's probably confirmation bias 422 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:28,140 but everything's still consistent so 423 00:14:32,690 --> 00:14:30,930 everything's still available I think it 424 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:32,700 out of time now so I'll just leave up my 425 00:14:37,430 --> 00:14:35,850 conclusions primarily that extent 426 00:14:38,780 --> 00:14:37,440 activity drives the composition of the 427 00:14:39,890 --> 00:14:38,790 atmosphere to drive the photochemistry 428 00:14:41,750 --> 00:14:39,900 and I charged with climbin what you 429 00:14:43,550 --> 00:14:41,760 might observe and that these planets 430 00:14:45,050 --> 00:14:43,560 while they may be observable by James 431 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:45,060 Webb with features up to 200 parts per 432 00:14:48,950 --> 00:14:47,610 million for the most favorable cases we 433 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:48,960 really have to consider hard our 434 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:50,610 observing strategy for the smaller 435 00:14:57,300 --> 00:14:52,290 planets and whether we'll be able to 436 00:14:57,310 --> 00:15:06,900 [Applause] 437 00:15:06,910 --> 00:15:12,360 any questions do your left 438 00:15:16,300 --> 00:15:14,740 so pretty much hmm pretty much all of 439 00:15:18,550 --> 00:15:16,310 these planets are in some sort of mean 440 00:15:19,090 --> 00:15:18,560 motion resonance and probably all tied 441 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:19,100 and they live 442 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:21,890 yep how do you does the model account 443 00:15:26,860 --> 00:15:24,650 for a lack or a possible some amount of 444 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:26,870 circulation between them and do you see 445 00:15:30,700 --> 00:15:28,850 big variations in the day and night side 446 00:15:32,470 --> 00:15:30,710 spectra so I don't model the day or 447 00:15:34,420 --> 00:15:32,480 night side this is a 1d model I am 448 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:34,430 working on a kind of day and night side 449 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:36,890 type model to be able to do more 450 00:15:42,490 --> 00:15:39,010 difficult planets that way I've done 451 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:42,500 some comparison from work on Proximus NB 452 00:15:50,110 --> 00:15:46,010 on comparing 1d to 3d models and so 453 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:50,120 forth ich say atmosphere is like Venus 454 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:53,570 that have very good thermal capabilities 455 00:15:59,890 --> 00:15:57,250 there you can actually find that see 456 00:16:01,060 --> 00:15:59,900 that yeah so like one of the sums that 457 00:16:04,870 --> 00:16:01,070 were shown is that okay if you have a 458 00:16:06,430 --> 00:16:04,880 resonance your atmosphere is can be 459 00:16:08,500 --> 00:16:06,440 smeared out so the day/night side is 460 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:08,510 quite similar and that's one reason why 461 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:10,850 we can use a 1d model here I found that 462 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:12,410 the temperatures and when you're looking 463 00:16:15,579 --> 00:16:13,730 at the surface temperatures which is 464 00:16:17,650 --> 00:16:15,589 primarily what I'm looking at in terms 465 00:16:19,180 --> 00:16:17,660 of habitability that the surface 466 00:16:21,460 --> 00:16:19,190 temperatures that the 3d modelers got 467 00:16:24,310 --> 00:16:21,470 from the LM D model from próxima son 468 00:16:26,140 --> 00:16:24,320 were quite repetitive all in 2016 under 469 00:16:28,420 --> 00:16:26,150 the exact same assumptions for the 1d 470 00:16:31,329 --> 00:16:28,430 model they get very similar answers 471 00:16:33,190 --> 00:16:31,339 within 5 or 10 Kelvin in most cases the 472 00:16:35,260 --> 00:16:33,200 other thing to think about is when we 473 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:35,270 look at that but for an ocean baring 474 00:16:39,220 --> 00:16:37,250 planet like the Aqua planet if you 475 00:16:41,079 --> 00:16:39,230 actually do include ocean heat transport 476 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:41,089 which is very very computationally 477 00:16:45,340 --> 00:16:43,010 expensive in 3d models that typically 478 00:16:48,220 --> 00:16:45,350 they don't do that but some work by Yang 479 00:16:50,199 --> 00:16:48,230 Hyun Jung or yang at all in 2014 480 00:16:52,449 --> 00:16:50,209 actually showed that you get a lot more 481 00:16:54,220 --> 00:16:52,459 ocean heat transport to the backside of 482 00:16:56,890 --> 00:16:54,230 the planet even in a synchronously 483 00:16:58,930 --> 00:16:56,900 rotating rotating case yeah so the 484 00:17:01,120 --> 00:16:58,940 caveats are with 1d is we can do the 485 00:17:03,100 --> 00:17:01,130 radiation much much better but you lose 486 00:17:05,559 --> 00:17:03,110 any information about the dynamics so 487 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:05,569 really kind of need to understand both 488 00:17:08,980 --> 00:17:07,250 cases to know what's going on with the 489 00:17:15,460 --> 00:17:08,990 planet yeah but we are working towards 490 00:17:20,990 --> 00:17:19,700 hi so I just wanted to go back to when 491 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:21,000 you were talking about 492 00:17:26,810 --> 00:17:24,090 I'm dwarf planets / French or well I'm 493 00:17:28,820 --> 00:17:26,820 dwarf planets that preferentially have 494 00:17:32,090 --> 00:17:28,830 high methane concentrations that are 495 00:17:35,210 --> 00:17:32,100 abiotic and that like levels am I right 496 00:17:37,940 --> 00:17:35,220 in interpreting that as atmospheric loss 497 00:17:39,620 --> 00:17:37,950 processes sort of blow off other species 498 00:17:42,410 --> 00:17:39,630 and then the methane is preferentially 499 00:17:45,470 --> 00:17:42,420 left behind or that not right no that's 500 00:17:48,830 --> 00:17:45,480 a great question so but that's not 501 00:17:50,030 --> 00:17:48,840 really right methane so the the methane 502 00:17:52,850 --> 00:17:50,040 is a little bit more confusing because 503 00:17:54,890 --> 00:17:52,860 methane survives easier around an EM 504 00:17:57,350 --> 00:17:54,900 door even though it has a lot more far 505 00:17:59,900 --> 00:17:57,360 UV flux and a lot more lyman-alpha it 506 00:18:02,210 --> 00:17:59,910 still survives stronger because of the 507 00:18:05,150 --> 00:18:02,220 other processes such as ozone that 508 00:18:07,340 --> 00:18:05,160 destroy methane so it's so it's not that 509 00:18:10,100 --> 00:18:07,350 the destruction of methane directly by 510 00:18:11,270 --> 00:18:10,110 the star is much different it's that the 511 00:18:13,580 --> 00:18:11,280 destruction of methane by other 512 00:18:16,850 --> 00:18:13,590 molecules such as water and such as 513 00:18:18,470 --> 00:18:16,860 ozone is much reduced because the n UV 514 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:18,480 absorption the near UV that's more like 515 00:18:24,500 --> 00:18:21,810 what ozone absorbs and earth Earth's 516 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:24,510 atmosphere that UV level is actually 517 00:18:30,110 --> 00:18:27,690 much less compared to gee doors so you 518 00:18:31,790 --> 00:18:30,120 actually get longer methane lifespans 519 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:31,800 and so even the same flux of methane 520 00:18:34,970 --> 00:18:33,690 results in just more methane building up 521 00:18:39,470 --> 00:18:34,980 in the atmosphere gotcha